Table 3:
Predictive Value, Low Prevalence
Syndrome Present
Syndrome Not Present
Positive test
95
990
Negative test
5
8910
100
9900
10000
Sensitivity 0.95, specificity 0.90, prevalence 0.01. Positive predictive value 95/ 95 + 9900 = 0.087, i.e. the probability that the patient has the syndrome if this sign is present, is still less than nine per cent.