RESEARCH ARTICLE


Event Tree Analysis of Xinda Oil Pipeline Leakage Based on Fuzzy Set Theory



Di Wang1, *, Enbin Liu1, Liyu Huang2
1 Oil and Natural Gas Engineering College, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, 610500 China
2 PetroChina Southwest Pipeline Company, Chengdu, 601213 China


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Creative Commons License
© Wang et al.; Licensee Bentham Open

open-access license: This is an open access article licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial 4.0 International Public License (CC BY-NC 4.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode), which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the work is properly cited.

* Address correspondence to this author at the Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China; Tel: +86-135-480-15217; E-mail: wangdee13@outlook.com


Abstract

Event tree is a logical analysis of probability for outcome events by initiating event and probable subsequent events. However, the evaluation of every single event may contain vague information or cannot be described by a crisp number of probabilities in application. So this paper aims to develop an event tree by using fuzzy set theory with a combination of triangle membership function and trapezoidal membership function to quantify the vagueness of information and calculate the outcome probability. Through the analysis of an oil pipeline leakage accident, the method provided is fully used and the expansion of accident can be tracked through different paths of event tree.

Keywords: Event tree, Fuzzy model, Oil pipeline, Outcome event probability.